The Dunning Kruger effect - people who don't understand probability are more likely to believe that (i) it's actually simple and (ii) they have a good understanding of it. This is why gamblers often feel so irrationally driven to recoup their losses. losing a $20 bet has a greater emotional weight than winning a $20 bet. Risk aversion - We are evolved as a species to be more sensitive to negative events than positive ones, i.e. We feel much less emotion when the converse occurs, so we are much less likely to remember it. In a board game, when we are hanging on every roll, this confirmation is heavily amplified - we feel rising frustration when rolls that benefit our opponents outnumber those that benefit us. This fact seems implausible, given 25 is such a small fraction out of the 366 possible birth dates that each person could have.Ĭonfirmation bias - if we believe something to be true, we'll be more likely to notice and remember events that confirm that beliefĪnd much less likely to notice the (possibly greater number of) events that contradict that belief. If you take a room with 25 people who have no connection to each other, there's a better than 50-50 chance that at least two people in that room will share a birthday. Take, for instance, the so-called 'birthday paradox'. That is, the probability of random but structured outcomes is often counterintuitive. We have monkey brains - we aren't very good at estimating probability. In the same vein, how many 7s in a row might we expect to see, at least now and then? It still feels weird, though, when we witness a long run of reds. Independence of random events - no matter how often red has come up on a roulette wheel, the chance of red occurring on the next spin is exactly the same. (When I wrote this, my first four coin tosses all came up heads, go figure.) Randomness is "lumpy" - you shouldn't expect an even distribution of numbers in a small sample size.įor instance, it's quite likely that you'll see a run of 4 heads or 4 tails when you toss an unbiased coin ten times. Some common themes emerged, to which I've added a few observations of my own: Some relevant points were made, in general terms, about the common misunderstandings people have about the nature of random events. This prompted numerous replies, many in a pretty unfriendly and condescending tone. I'll stick to the analog version and deal with rolls that reflect the reality of statistics and probability. Until it gets fixed, I'm done with Catan here. 40-50 minute games, 60-70 rolls per game, and only five or six 7s rolled? In what universe does that occur? The dice generator is totally whacked out. Catan Assist 3.I played it 20 times, and I can safely say it's broken beyond being able to enjoy the game. Please note: This is not the Settlers of Catan game, it is a tool to improve the gameplay of the board game Settlers of Catan, Seafarers, Traders & Barbarians, and Cities & Knights. Of course, the amount by which the "luck is filtered" can be adjusted and by setting it to zero is becomes a completely normal game again. By reducing the probability for numbers that have occurred more frequently than expected, the game will contain less luck and become more strategic. The dice simulator can be used to reduce the luck factor during the game. Place the ports close to, or far from their resource or place them randomly.Distribute the numbers fairly over the board or place them randomly,.Place resources non-adjacent to the same type or place them randomly,.The board generator contains multiple algorithms that you can use to create a game the suits your needs: All scenarios are available in the free version. Play on the original board or select one of the 30 Seafarers scenarios for either 3-4 players or 5-6 players or one of the 6 scenarios for the Traders & Barbarians expansion. The board generator is designed to create a fair and engaging game of Catan. Catan Assist is a board generator and dice simulator for the board game Settlers of Catan, Seafarers, Traders & Barbarians, and Cities & Knights.
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